Free · Q4 2026 · UK sellers

Q4 buying: good deal vs bad deal.

Black Friday is on 27 November 2026. Prices, fees and returns all behave differently from now until January. This free checklist gives you ten checks to run on any Q4 buy before you spend, so you can tell a good deal from one that only looks good in November.

How to tell a normal price from a short Q4 spike
Which fees to add for the peak period, using your own Seller Central numbers
Sell-through, capacity and the "will it arrive in time" check
January returns and cash timing, before you commit
A screen-recorded walkthrough of the same checks, sent by email when it is ready

No profit promises. These are the checks, not predictions. Whether a deal works depends on your own fees, prices and timing.

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The checklist

Ten checks before any Q4 buy

Run each check on the product page, Keepa and your own Seller Central account. One bad answer is a reason to look harder. Several bad answers usually mean walk away.

Is today's price the normal price?

Open the Keepa chart and look at the last 90 days, then at the same weeks last year. Q4 prices often rise for a few weeks and then fall after Black Friday or in early January.

Good dealThe Buy Box price has been steady for months, and it held through last year's Q4 and January.

Bad dealThe price is only high now. Last year it dropped after Black Friday and did not come back.

Does it sell outside December?

Check the sales rank line across a full year. You want demand that carries on after Christmas, so unsold units are not stuck.

Good dealSales rank stays healthy all year, with a Q4 lift on top.

Bad dealIt only sells in late November and December. Anything left in January sits until next year.

Have you used your own Q4 fees?

Use the fee preview in Seller Central for this ASIN, not last summer's numbers or a guess. Add the peak fulfilment fee and the higher October to December storage rate that Amazon publishes for the UK. Our free profit calculator lets you type these in.

Good dealIt still works with the peak fees and Q4 storage included, at a lower sell price than today's.

Bad dealIt only works at today's price with normal fees.

Seven more checks

Checks 4 to 10 cover sellers piling in, capacity and arrival dates, January returns, restrictions and brand complaints, cash timing, your exit price and paperwork.

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Are other sellers piling in?

Look at the offer count on the Keepa chart. When a deal is easy to find, the number of sellers can jump in a few days and the price follows it down.

Good dealThe number of sellers is stable, and Amazon is not selling it, or has not been in stock for a while.

Bad dealThe offer count is climbing fast, or Amazon has just come back in stock at a lower price.

Will it arrive in time to sell?

Check your FBA capacity limits and how long your last few shipments took to be received. Q4 receiving is slower. Stock that goes live after the gift-buying weeks misses the point of buying it.

Good dealYou have capacity, and the stock can be prepped, sent and received with time to spare before the peak weeks.

Bad dealIt arrives at your prep centre in mid-December, or you are already near your capacity limit.

What happens in January?

Gifts come back. Amazon's extended holiday returns window means items bought in Q4 can be returned well into January. Some return unsellable.

Good dealA category with few returns (consumables, simple household goods) and the price still works if a few come back.

Bad dealSizes, colours or electronics that are often returned, where one damaged return wipes out the margin on several units.

Can you sell it safely?

Before you buy, add the ASIN to your inventory as a test to see if it is restricted, and search for the brand with "IP complaint" in reseller groups.

Good dealYou are approved for the category and brand, and there is no history of complaints against resellers.

Bad deal"Apply to sell" appears, or the brand is known for filing complaints in Q4 when listings get busy.

When does the cash come back?

Amazon pays out on a cycle, and returns can be held back. Map out when this buy turns back into cash next to your January bills, such as a VAT return.

Good dealThe cash comes back before the bills you already know about.

Bad dealIt ties up money you need for VAT or for restocking your steady sellers.

Do you know your exit price?

Work out the lowest sell price where you still break even after fees. The calculator shows this. Decide now what you will do if the price falls to that line.

Good dealThere is a clear gap between today's price and your break-even price, and you have a plan if it drops.

Bad dealBreak-even is close to today's price, and the only plan is "it will go back up".

Is the paperwork right?

Keep the invoice or receipt for every buy. Amazon can ask for proof of where stock came from, and Q4 is a busy time for checks.

Good dealA proper invoice or receipt with the supplier's details and the product on it.

Bad dealNo invoice, a handwritten note, or a supplier you cannot check.

Fees, dates and Amazon policies change. Check the current figures on Amazon's own UK fee and policy pages in Seller Central before you buy. Examples are for illustration only and are not guarantees.

Profit calculatorYour own fees in, profit, ROI and max buy price out. Peak fee guideThe 2026 peak fulfilment fee window and how to add it. Storage feesQ4 storage and aged inventory, and the reports to check.

Free walkthrough

The screen-recorded walkthrough

We are recording a short, faceless screen-recording of these checks on real UK listings: the Keepa chart, the Seller Central fee preview and the calculator, one step at a time. If you sign up above, we will email it to you when it is ready.

It shows the checks only. It does not promise any result.

Reading a Keepa chart for a Q4 spike
Pulling your own fees from Seller Central
Running the numbers with peak fees included
Capacity, arrival dates and the January returns check
Setting an exit price before you buy
Three buys walked through: good, borderline and bad

Next step

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The £299 video course shows sourcing, checks and the admin run on a real UK account, in 10 screen-recorded modules.

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